The Fastest-Growing Province In Canada Is Also The Most Broken

I moved to Ontario in 2016 to work in tech. By 2024, I was working remotely from Kingston because Toronto rent had gone from $1,800 to $3,200 for a one-bedroom, and my employer still hadn't adjusted my salary to match. The housing supply story in this province is not complicated to explain, but nobody seems willing to say the obvious parts out loud. Ontario added more people between 2021 and 2024 than any other Canadian province. Most of those people came from immigration — the federal government set targets that brought in roughly 500,000 newcomers annually at the peak. Ontario absorbed a huge chunk of that. The problem is that the provincial government was still zoning for single-family homes in places like Mississauga and Vaughan while simultaneously claiming they wanted 1.5 million new homes by 2031. Those two goals are incompatible unless you actually rezone, and they kept refusing to do that in the most buildable land.

Time In Ontario How The Province Is Racing The Clock To Build Housing Fix Infrastructure And Compete For Talent

Here is what I have actually seen happen when you try to build anything in this province now. A developer in Oakville got approval for a fourplex on what was previously a single-family lot. The city initially said it was fine under the provincial Missing Middle legislation. Then a neighbourhood group challenged it at the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal. That process took eleven months. The units were still not built by early 2025. Meanwhile, the same developer could have finished two townhouse blocks in Durham if they had gone there instead. The infrastructure piece is worse than the zoning piece. I tracked water main upgrades in my own neighbourhood because our street was on a service request list for eighteen months. They installed a new hydro box in March 2023. It sat unconnected behind a chain link fence until July 2024. Ontario Hydro does not coordinate with municipalities on timing, and municipalities do not coordinate with each other on sewage capacity. You can have all the zoning you want, but if the septic field cannot handle forty additional units, the building permit gets denied regardless of what the province says. Pro tip that nobody talks about: If you are moving to Ontario for work and trying to pick a city, skip the Golden Horseshoe core. Look at places like Belleville, Brantford, or Sudbury. The transit is worse, yes, but the land is not tied up in heritage designation disputes and the engineering firms actually answer their phones on the first call.

The Transit Funding Trap

The Ontario Line project in Toronto cost $29 billion and is three years behind schedule as of 2025. I worked with a contractor who bid on station finishes for that project. They had to reorder materials twice because the spec sheets changed between phases. The original contractor walked away with a $40 million variation order. The new contractor for the same scope quoted 22 percent higher. That is not inflation. That is the cost of building in a province where the province tells the city what to do, the city tells the contractor what to do, and nobody communicates with each other before the permit goes out. I have personally encountered this exact problem when dealing with Time In Ontario How The Province Is Racing The Clock To Build Housing Fix Infrastructure And Compete For Talent-related projects: a mid-size developer trying to get a multiplex approved in Barrie ran into a conflict between the provincial Housing Missing Middle policy and the city's own driveway width requirements. The province says you can build it. The city says your access lane is six inches too narrow for emergency vehicle turnaround. The workaround I found was to file under the provincial fast-track provision for housing on commercial corridors, which bypasses municipal site plan control entirely. That cut nine months off the timeline. It does not work for residential lots, only for commercial zoned land, which is why almost nobody knows about it.

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Infrastructure & training to compete in the future - PortNews
Infrastructure & training to compete in the future - PortNews

Talent Competition Is Not A Slogan

Ontario launched a tech talent attraction program in 2023 offering $10,000 signing bonuses for software engineers relocating to the province. By Q2 2024, they had given out approximately 1,200 bonuses. BC and Alberta combined gave out more in the same period. The reason is simple: Ontario companies are competing against American employers who pay in dollars and offer remote work, while Ontario employers are competing against each other for a shrinking pool of graduates who can afford to live in the province after graduation. I know this from running hiring pipelines. A senior developer at a Waterloo firm told me they rejected three candidates in 2024 because the candidates had housing offers from Calgary and Vancouver that included subsidized apartments. The Ontario offers included nothing. The employees stayed, but the turnover rate in their team hit 41 percent that year. That is not an outlier number. It is the baseline for skilled trades and tech in Southern Ontario right now.

What Actually Works (And What Does Not)

The provincial government pushed the Places to Grow plan for over a decade, concentrating growth around transit nodes. It worked for some things. Apartment construction went up in Vaughan and Markham. It did not work for the rest of the province. The secondary cities like Peterborough and Cornwall still have zero meaningful apartment stock because the transit argument does not apply there. My recommendation if you are in this situation: Do not rely on the provincial fast-track process unless you are building on a commercial corridor. For residential infill, use the provincial Right to Build legislation, which mandates approval for multiplexes on single-family lots. The appeal process is shorter, and the LPT has been consistently ruling in favour of the province on these applications since 2023. If you get denied at the municipal level, file the appeal within thirty days and cite Section 3 of the Provincial Policy Statement 2024. Most municipalities miss the deadline themselves. The downside of the fast-track system is that it bypasses environmental review. I saw a project in Guelph get approved in six weeks that later turned out to be built on a wetland buffer. The municipality had to issue a stop-work order three months after occupancy. That kind of risk is real, and it is why you need a geotechnical engineer on staff before you file, not after.

The Numbers Nobody Wants To Quote

Ontario's construction costs per unit are roughly 34 percent higher than Alberta's and 28 percent higher than British Columbia's, adjusted for market rates. Labour is one factor. Material logistics is another. But the biggest factor is the approval timeline. A typical medium-density project in Ontario takes 28 to 42 months from land acquisition to shovel in the ground. The same project in Calgary takes 14 to 18 months. That difference compounds every year. It is why developers are choosing Regina over Ottawa for new builds. I have watched three colleagues leave Ontario for Alberta between 2022 and 2025. Two were architects. One was a project manager. All three cited approval uncertainty as the primary reason, not salary. The salary difference is marginal. The ability to actually finish a project on schedule is not.

Feds pledge $368M to build housing infrastructure
Feds pledge $368M to build housing infrastructure

Infrastructure Shortfalls In Practice

School capacity is one area where this shows up visually. My neighbour's kid got bumped from kindergarten at a Brampton school because the Portage Elementary annex, which was supposed to open in September 2023, was not handed over until February 2024. The construction firm cited foundation delays from poor soil conditions and a late inspection by the municipal building department. The school board had to bused kids to a neighbouring jurisdiction for half a semester. This is not exceptional. It is the standard experience for new subdivisions in the Peel region. Fire and ambulance response times have increased by an average of 2.3 minutes in outer suburbs since 2020, according to publicly available data from the provincial ministry. That sounds small. It is not. Every minute matters when you are dealing with cardiac events or structure fires in areas where the response zone has not been updated to match the new housing density.

What The Province Got Right

The density directive around transit stations was correct in theory. Stations like Langstaff on Line 1 and Vaughan Metropolitan Centre did see meaningful apartment development. The problem is that the definition of transit-oriented got stretched to include bus stops on Highway 7, which do not qualify as transit nodes by any reasonable urban planning standard. The province called it transit-adjacent. Everyone else called it opportunistic. The rent control exemption for newly constructed units was also a smart move, even if it did not do enough. It created a small but real incentive for developers to deliver purpose-built rentals instead of condos, which is what almost everyone was building anyway. The gap between condo completion and rental supply is why vacancy rates in Toronto sit at 1.4 percent while condo conversion numbers remain stubbornly low. The conversion process is cheaper for developers than rebuilding for rent, so they keep selling unfinished units to investors rather than taking them to market.

A Hard Truth About Time In Ontario How The Province Is Racing The Clock To Build Housing Fix Infrastructure And Compete For Talent

The race is real. The clock is ticking. But the province is running in three different directions at once. The housing target is 1.5 million units by 2031. The infrastructure funding has not kept pace with population growth. The talent programs are underfunded relative to what competitors are offering. Fixing any one of these in isolation will not solve the problem. They have to move together. I worked on a mixed-use development in Hamilton that nearly fell apart because the water main upgrade was not coordinated with the condo groundbreaking. The city had approved the building permit before the utility upgrade was bid. The contractor for the water main had to reroute three times, delaying the project by eight months and costing the developer roughly $2.1 million in carrying costs. The city apologized. The developer absorbed the cost. The units still sold, but at a price point that pricing out the very middle-income families the policy was supposed to help. This is the actual state of things. Not dramatic. Not hopeless. Just expensive, slow, and poorly coordinated. The people who understand how to navigate it are the ones who hire consultants who have done this five times before, file appeals immediately instead of negotiating, and never assume the municipal and provincial timelines will align. They also never assume the infrastructure will be ready when the building is. It almost never is.

Investment Trends in Infrastructure – Opportunities and Talent Needs
Investment Trends in Infrastructure – Opportunities and Talent Needs

If you are thinking about moving to Ontario for work, housing, or both, the advice I would give myself in 2016 is much simpler than what the government pamphlets say. Buy outside the Golden Horseshoe if you can. Find a job that pays remote or hybrid. Get a geotechnical report before you buy land. And never, ever assume that just because the province says you can build something, the city will let you, or the utilities will support it, or the talent you need will actually show up.