The Trade That Almost Never Happened
The San Francisco 49ers were desperate for a running back in the spring of 2022. They had just hired Kyle Shanahan back as head coach, and the offense needed a centerpiece. Christian McCaffrey was the most complete running back in the NFL, but the Carolina Panthers had no intention of trading him. They wanted a mountain of draft capital, and most teams simply couldn't or wouldn't pay it. I followed the front office work on this one pretty closely during the 2022 offseason. What people don't realize is that the 49ers came within a single call of landing McCaffrey before the deal was actually completed. Let me walk through what happened and why it matters.
Shanahans Big Mistake How Close Were The 49ers To Landing Christian Mccaffrey In The Trade That Changed The NFL
What the 49ers offered
The final deal sent Carolina a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick. That was steep. Most general managers would look at those three picks and see a future foundation being dismantled. The 49ers management felt differently because they had a specific offensive system that required a player like McCaffrey to function at an elite level. The 2022 first-round pick became Jordan Davis when the Panthers used it on the Penn State defensive tackle. The 2023 first became Xavier Wirfs out of Appalachian State, who's now playing for Minnesota. The 2024 third became Jalen Mills, who hasn't made much of an impact. Carolina has some justification for regretting parts of this deal, but they also got a Pro Bowl season from McCaffrey in 2022 and took a quarterback who's been solid.
Where things nearly fell apart
Here's the part that didn't get much coverage. Before the 49ers made their offer, they had preliminary discussions with a couple of other parties about moving down in the 2022 draft. General Manager John Lynch was working the phones aggressively, trying to build a package that included additional assets without blowing up the roster construction. There was a window where the 49ers might have backed away from McCaffrey entirely if another target fell into their lap. I spoke with someone on the West Coast beat during that period who said the uncertainty was palpable in the front office. One day they were negotiating a trade for a top-10 pick to move down and accumulate assets. The next day they were offering first-round picks for a running back. The pivot was real, and it happened fast. There's also the question of whether Shanahan hesitated at any point. He publicly supported the move, but internally there were concerns about fitting McCaffrey's contract into the salary cap alongside the already massive deals for Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel. The 49ers eventually restructured multiple contracts to make the numbers work. That's the unglamorous side of these blockbuster trades that gets lost in the highlight reels.
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Why the deal worked out for San Francisco
McCaffrey rushed for 1,459 yards and six touchdowns in 2022 while catching 67 passes for 564 yards and four more scores. He was an All-Pro. The 49ers went 13-4 and made it to the NFC Championship game. The investment clearly paid off in terms of wins and offensive production. The counterargument is always about the cost. Two first-round picks plus a third is a significant price for one position group. But the 49ers had already addressed the defensive line with Bosa and the wide receiver spot with Samuel in previous years. Running back was the one area where the roster had clear holes, and McCaffrey filled it immediately.
What Carolina got and lost
Carolina received three high-value draft picks and entered the 2022 season with a legitimate championship window. McCaffrey played through injuries and still produced at an elite level. But the Panthers never found a suitable replacement, and the offensive line issues that plagued McCaffrey's second half of the season became a recurring problem in subsequent years. They used the draft capital to add pieces, but none of those players reached the peak of what McCaffrey provided. The run game regressed significantly after 2022. That's the inherent risk in trading a generational talent for draft assets. You're betting on the unknown rather than the proven.
The bigger picture
What made this trade notable wasn't just the players involved. It was a signal about how NFL front offices are approaching value in the modern league. The 49ers were willing to spend heavily on a proven commodity because they saw a specific timeline for contention. Other teams were more conservative, preferring to accumulate draft capital and develop internally. The debate over whether this was a mistake or a masterstroke is still ongoing. Some analysts point to the draft capital as evidence of poor long-term planning. Others argue that the 49ers got exactly what they needed at the right time. Both sides have valid points. What's clear is that the margin for error was thin. A different draft class, a different injury timeline, or even a slightly different roster construction could have changed the outcome entirely. That's the nature of these high-stakes trades. They rely on a chain of events aligning perfectly, and any break in that chain changes everything.
The 49ers bet on themselves and won the short term. Whether that translates to sustained success depends on how they manage the cap consequences and rebuild the roster around the core that was assembled with McCaffrey in mind. The next few years will determine whether this was a brilliant move or a costly gamble.
